Sports Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Chicago Cubs +121

Javier Assad has the best ERA in baseball since June of last season.  He is legitimately one of the most underrated starters in the game, and now we are getting him as an underdog against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.

Assad is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 38 innings.  Assad has never lost to the Pirates, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in three career starts against them, and the Cubs are 3-0 in those three starts.  He held the Pirates to 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his two starts against them last season.

No question Jared Jones is one of the best young starters in the game.  But the rookie is getting too much respect here.  He has already allowed 7 homers in 41 innings this season and can be had.  

The Cubs have a big advantage at the plate as they are scoring 4.6 runs per game compared to 3.5 runs per game for the Pirates, including 2.9 runs per game at home. Chicago is 9-3 (+10.3 Units) in Assad's 12 starts as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 6-16 in their last 22 games overall.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

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15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling right now going 14-2 in their last 16 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.

Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award.  He is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings with 29 K's.  The Dodgers are 7-1 in his eight starts this season with six wins by two runs or more.

I'll gladly fade Michael King, who has already allowed 9 homers in 38 2/3 innings this season.  He is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  King faced the Dodgers earlier this season on April 12th, allowing 7 runs, 4 earned, and 4 homers in 5 innings.  He will get lit up again tonight.

San Diego is 2-10 in home games in night games this season and getting outscored by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -107

The Kansas City Royals have advantages on the mound and at the plate over the Los Angeles Angels tonight.  I like the value we are getting on the Royals at basically even money in Game 2 of this series off their 10-4 win in Game 1.

Alec Marsh takes a big step down in class here against an Angels lineup that is in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout and a few others due to injury.  Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts this season.  He has pitched 10 shutout innings in his last two starts against Baltimore and Toronto.

I'll gladly fade Griffin Canning, who is 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 6 homers in 35 innings.  Canning is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three home starts this season.  

The Angels are 1-10 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Royals are 16-5 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season.  Kansas City is 11-2 against teams with a bad bullpen with a 4.70 ERA or worse this season.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are the hottest team in baseball going 18-4 in their last 22 games overall with 13 wins by two runs or more.  I fully expect them to win this game against the Miami Marlins by multiple runs tonight.  The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball this season at 10-29.  They have gone 4-12 in their last 16 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.

Ranger Suarez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in seven starts this season allowing just 9 earned runs and 34 base runners in 47 innings.  The Phillies are 7-0 in his seven starts this season with six wins by 3 runs or more.  Suarez is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in seven career starts against Miami.

Trevor Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs and 58 base runners in 33 2/3 innings.  The Marlins are 0-8 in Rogers' last eight starts with all eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Rogers is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies.

The Phillies are 13-2 in Suarez's last 15 road starts in the first half of the season.  The Marlins are 0-10 in Rogers' last 10 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs and getting outscored by 4.9 runs per game in this spot.  Miami is 2-17 in Rogers' last 19 starts off a loss.  Philadelphia is 8-0 in Suarez's last eight starts against an NL team with a .245 batting average or worse.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -118

The Baltimore Orioles are 24-12 this season and one of the best teams in baseball.  They should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks today given their rest advantage and their advantage on the mound.  The Orioles had yesterday off while the Diamondbacks completed their 3-game series in Cincinnati yesterday and now have to travel to Baltimore.

Cole Irvin is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six starts for the Orioles this season, allowing just 2 homers in 34 2/3 innings.  He has been unhittable in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.60 WHIP while pitching 20 shutout innings and allowing just 12 base runners.

Brandon Pfaadt has been a major disappointment for the Diamondbacks in his two seasons in big leagues not living up to the hype.  Pfaadt is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 5 homers in 41 innings.  The Orioles will tag him tonight.

The Orioles are 15-2 with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  We are getting tremendous value on Baltimore tonight.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

I grabbed the opener at -4.5 on the Pacers as soon as this line came out after Game 2 concluded Wednesday night.  I did so with the anticipation that the line would move toward the Pacers considering all the injuries the Knicks are dealing with right now.  So hopefully long-term clients grabbed the best line they could find early.

This line has ballooned to Pacers 7/-7.5 as of Thursday.  It would still be a 25* up to -6, but a 20* at anything higher.  I think the Pacers win this game in a blowout and likely cover all numbers given the spot and the injuries to the Knicks.

The Knicks were already short-handed without Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic.  Now OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and sat out the 4th quarter.  Chances are he'll sit out Game 3, too.  Anunoby has been the key to their success since the trade and had 28 points in the first three quarters.  Jalen Brunson sat out the 2nd quarter with an injured foot, but returned in the 2H to lead the comeback victory from double-digits down in Game 2.  He's not 100% and the Knicks could even elect to rest him in Game 3, though that's unlikely.

Tom Thibodeu is going to be forced to give McBride, Achiuwa and Burks more minutes than he wants to.  I think the Knicks will be satisfied with the fact that they held serve at home by coming up clutch in the final minutes of both Game 1 and Game 2, but also getting a lot of help from the refs.  I think the Knicks will have a letdown in Game 3, while we get a max effort from the Pacers knowing they are not out of this series with all the injuries to the Knicks.  Plus, they will likely get the benefit of the whistle in Game 3 at home due to all the negative publicity the refs have received for their favoritism of the Knicks in the first two games.

The fact of the matter is the Pacers are every bit as good as the Knicks and easily could have won both games in New York.  They just didn't execute late and didn't get any help from the refs, either.  Their depth is their biggest asset, and that will be on display here in Game 3.  There will only be one day in between Games 2 and 3 for the Knicks to recover, and that's not enough given their current injury situation.  The Pacers have been picking up full court and playing at a break-neck pace, which will pay dividends for them the longer this series goes with how short-handed the Knicks are.  I think the Knicks finally break and get blown out in Game 3.  Bet the Pacers Friday.